Apple Watch's Sales Predictions

With March 9th, when Apple is supposed to announcing the Apple Watch for the second time with final set of features and complete details about pricing, coming closer and even with Apple's CEO Tim Cook going on a rampage of sorts promoting the Apple Watch all over the world (via 9to5mac), one thing no one seems to be able to predict is how popular Apple's newest gadget will turn out to be! 

When we asked analysts last September to estimate how many Apple Watches the company would sell in calendar 2015, the average was 22.6 million... We surveyed our analysts again today, seven days before Apple’s Spring Forward event, and got nearly the same average — 22.47 million.
— Fortune

This scenario reminds me very much of the the days prior to the original iPhone's launch in 2007; yes there was this great new gadget from Apple that looked cool and seemed to work flawlessly, but why does anyone need it? The same thing pretty much happened around to the iPad launch as well (remember the "its just a bigger iPhone" thing). Hence it looks like the Apple Watch is following suit in the right direction of its predecessors in ensuring to be a hit! 

We didn’t ask for an average selling price, but among those who offered one, the mean ASP was $416.
— Fortune

But an ASP or $416 for a premium smartwatch that starts at $349 does sound terribly shortsighted, but knowing most of these analysts, they seem to have no clue when it comes to predicting Apple or AAPL anyways, so were we actually expecting any better from them?